Estimated reading time: 17 minutes

Introduction

Imagine you are standing in front of two doors. Behind the first door is a guaranteed prize of 50,000 euros. Behind the second door is either nothing - or the chance to win a million euros, plus ten more doors that will only open if you choose this door.

Which door would you choose?

Most people would choose the first door. It's safe, predictable and offers instant gratification. But the smartest entrepreneurs in the world - from Jeff Bezos to Elon Musk - would choose the second door without hesitation. Not because of the money. But because of the options.

Welcome to the Optionality Principle: the most powerful decision-making framework that you have probably never consciously used before, but which will determine the success or failure of your business.

Here's the brutal truth: every decision you make today opens or closes doors for tomorrow. Most entrepreneurs only think about today. They optimize for the short-term gain, the immediate solution, the quick success. In doing so, they overlook the most important thing: the invisible opportunities they are blocking.

The optionality principle reverses this way of thinking. It doesn't ask: "What does this decision do for me today?" It asks: "What possibilities does this decision open up for me tomorrow?"

And the difference between these two mindsets? It determines whether you spend a lifetime collecting small profits - or whether you build an empire.

The optionality revolution: Why the future belongs to option maximizers

Let me tell you a story that changed everything.

In 1994, Jeff Bezos was faced with a decision. He had a well-paid job on Wall Street and a promising career ahead of him. Then he heard a statistic: the internet was growing by 2,300% per year. Most people would have thought: "Interesting, but what does that have to do with me?"

Bezos thought differently. He didn't just see a statistic - he saw an option. A door that would only open for a short time. He quit his job, packed his bags and drove to Seattle to found a company that would initially only sell books.

Here's the key point: Bezos didn't found Amazon because he loved books. He founded Amazon because books were the perfect option. They were standardized, easy to store, had a huge selection and - most importantly - they opened the door to everything else.

From books to electronics. From electronics to clothing. From products to services. From e-commerce to cloud computing. Each decision opened new doors instead of closing them.

This is optionality in action: a seemingly small decision (selling books online) becomes the basis for infinite possibilities (the most valuable company in the world).

The optionality revolution has already begun. In a world that is changing exponentially fast, it is not the companies with the best plans that are winning. The companies with the most options are winning. The companies that can adapt quickly, seize new opportunities and turn each decision into a platform for the next.

Let's take a look at the winners of the last 20 years: Google started as a search engine and became a technology conglomerate. Apple started with computers and revolutionized music, phones and tablets. Tesla started with electric cars and expanded into energy storage, solar panels and space technology.

What do they all have in common? They never made a decision that would have limited their future. Every step opened up new possibilities.

And here's the fascinating thing: The Optionality Principle doesn't just work for billion-dollar companies. It works for every entrepreneur, every coach, every consultant. You just need to understand how it works.

The anatomy of an option: What makes a decision valuable?

Not all decisions are the same. Some open doors, others close them. Some create opportunities, others destroy them. The difference lies in the structure of the decision itself.

A real option has five properties:

1. asymmetric payoffs This means that the potential gain is much greater than the potential loss. You risk little, but potentially win a lot. Like a lottery ticket - you lose a maximum of the stake, but potentially win millions.

2. low entry costs You don't have to put all your eggs in one basket. You can start small, test, learn and then scale up. Like an experiment - you only invest as much as you can afford to lose.

3. scalability If the option works, you can increase it. If it doesn't work, you can end it. Like a pilot project - you test on a small scale and roll out on a large scale.

4. learning effects Every option teaches you something. Even if it doesn't work, you gain knowledge that is valuable for the next option. Just like an experiment - failure is just as valuable as success.

5. combinability The best options can be combined with other options. They create synergies, reinforce each other and open doors that would not be accessible individually.

Let me give you a practical example: Imagine you are a business coach and are thinking about creating an online course. You have two options:

Option A: You create a highly specialized course for "Managers in the automotive industry". The course is very focused, has a small but affluent target group and immediately earns you 20,000 euros.

Option B: You create a course on "Strategic decision-making for entrepreneurs". The course is broader in scope, has a larger target group and initially only earns you 10,000 euros.

Most people would choose option A. More money, immediately. But let's take a look at optionality:

Option A closes doors: You are now the "automotive industry expert". Your target group is limited. Your next courses must fit into this niche. You have committed yourself.

Option B opens doors: You are now the "Strategic Decisions Expert". You can create courses for different industries. You can serve B2B and B2C. You can expand into consulting, coaching, speaking. You've kept all your options open.

That is the difference between short-term thinking and optionality thinking. One optimizes for today, the other for all possible tomorrows.

The Optionality Framework: Your decision-making compass for maximum future opportunities

Now it's getting practical. Here's the framework I use to look at every important decision through optionality glasses. It consists of five questions you should ask yourself before making any strategic decision.

Question 1: What doors does this decision open?

That is the most important question. Not: "What will this decision do for me?" But: "What new opportunities will this decision create?"

Example: You are thinking about starting a podcast. The direct benefits are manageable - a little more reach, maybe a few new customers. But the doors that open? You become an expert on your topic. You build a network with other podcasters. You learn audio production. You develop your communication skills. You create content that can be converted into other formats. You open the door to speaking engagements, book deals, collaborations.

Question 2: What doors does this decision close?

Every decision has opportunity costs. If you decide to do A, you can't do B at the same time. The question is: Are the closed doors more important than the open ones?

Example: You are considering focusing on a very specific niche - "stress management for dentists". This opens the door to an affluent, underserved target group. But it closes the door to all other target groups. You become a "dentist coach" and it will be difficult to expand later.

Question 3: How reversible is this decision?

Jeff Bezos distinguishes between "one-way-door" and "two-way-door" decisions. One-way-door decisions are difficult to reverse - like getting married or selling your business. Two-way-door decisions are easy to correct - like launching a new product or starting a marketing campaign.

The rule: For two-way door decisions, optimize for optionality. For one-way door decisions, optimize for safety.

Question 4: What are the learning effects?

Even if a decision does not bring the desired immediate success - what do you learn in the process? What skills do you develop? What insights do you gain? What networks are you building?

Example: You start a YouTube channel that doesn't go viral. Direct success: low. But you learn video production, develop your presentation skills, understand algorithms, build a small but loyal community. These learning effects are valuable for future projects.

Question 5: How can this option be combined with others?

The most powerful options are those that reinforce each other. They create synergies that are greater than the sum of their parts.

Example: You write a blog, start a podcast and build an email list. Individually, these are three mediocre marketing channels. Together, they are a powerful content ecosystem: the blog provides material for the podcast, the podcast drives traffic to the blog, both build the email list, the email list amplifies both other channels.

The optionality scoring system

For each important decision I give points from 1-10 for:

-Open doors (+)

-Close doors (-)

-reversibility (+)

-Learning effects (+)

-Combinability (+)

A decision with a high optionality score (over 30 points) is almost always the right choice, even if it appears less attractive in the short term.

The optionality trap: why too many options can paralyze you

But beware: the optionality principle has a dark side. There is such a thing as too many options. And if you fall into this trap, you will paradoxically become less successful, not more.

The paradox of choice is real. Psychologists have proven it: People with too many options make worse decisions, are less satisfied with their decisions and suffer from decision paralysis.

In business, this manifests itself as "shiny object syndrome": You see opportunities everywhere. A new idea every day. A new project every week. You start everything, finish nothing and only do things by halves.

I know entrepreneurs who have 20 different projects underway. All of them are "promising options". None of them get the attention they need to be successful. They are rich in options, but poor in results.

The solution is the "optionality budget": You're only allowed to pursue a limited number of options at a time. For most solopreneurs, that's 2-3 main projects. For small teams, maybe 5-7, but no more.

The rule: Collect options, but only pursue a few. Evaluate your portfolio regularly and eliminate the weakest options to make room for stronger ones.

The "Option Pruning" system

Take stock every three months:

-Which options show progress?

-Which options have proved to be dead ends?

-What new options have emerged?

-Which old options should you eliminate?

Eliminate mercilessly. Every option that you don't pursue ties up mental energy. Every unfinished project is an open loop in your head. Every "maybe later" idea is a distraction from what's really important.

The 80/20 rule of optionality: 80% of your energy should flow into the 20% of your options that have the greatest potential. The other 80% of your options only get 20% of your energy - or are eliminated.

Optionality in practice: How successful entrepreneurs apply the principle

Theory is nice, but what does optionality look like in the real world? Let me show you how successful entrepreneurs apply the principle in different areas.

Product development with optionality:

Instead of developing a perfect product that only appeals to one target group, you develop a modular product that can be adapted for different target groups.

Example: You create a course on "Effective Communication". Instead of positioning it only for executives, you structure it so that it works for both B2B (executives, salespeople, consultants) and B2C (parents, couples, students). You create different marketing materials and case studies for each target group, but the core content remains the same.

Result: One product, five markets. If one market doesn't work, you have four others. If one market works particularly well, you can go deeper there.

Pricing with optionality:

Instead of having a fixed price, create different price options that appeal to different target groups and offer different upsell opportunities.

Example: Your coaching program is available in three versions:

-Basic (997€): Self-study with videos and workbooks

-Premium (€2,997): Self-study plus monthly group calls

-VIP (€9,997): Everything plus 1:1 sessions

Result: You appeal to price-sensitive customers (Basic), build a community (Premium) and generate high margins (VIP). Each level is an option for the next.

Content strategy with optionality:

Instead of creating content for just one platform, develop content that works on multiple platforms and reinforces each other.

Example: You write a detailed blog post. You turn it into:

-5 LinkedIn posts (various aspects)

-1 YouTube video (summary)

-10 Twitter threads (Key Points)

-1 Podcast episode (Deep Dive)

-1 e-mail newsletter (Behind the Scenes)

The result: one piece of content, six channels. Each channel reinforces the others and opens up new possibilities.

Network setup with Optionality:

Instead of just networking in your industry, you build relationships with people who work in related fields and can open doors to new opportunities.

Example: As a business coach, you not only network with other coaches, but also with:

-business consultants (cooperation opportunities)

-Event organizers (speaking opportunities)

-Podcast hosts (guest appearances)

-authors (book projects)

-Investors (business opportunities)

Result: Every relationship opens doors to new areas and opportunities.

Skill development with Optionality:

Instead of focusing only on your core expertise, you develop complementary skills that strengthen your main skills and create new opportunities.

Example: As a coach, you also learn:

-Copywriting (better marketing)

-Video production (content creation)

-Data analysis (better decisions)

-Public speaking (new sources of income)

Result: Every new skill makes you more valuable and opens new doors.

The future belongs to the optionality masters: Why the principle is becoming more important, not less important

We live in a time of exponential change. What works today may be obsolete tomorrow. What seems impossible today may be standard the day after tomorrow. In such a world, predictability is an illusion and flexibility a survival advantage.

The COVID-19 pandemic was a perfect example: companies that only had one sales channel (e.g. offline only) collapsed. Businesses that had multiple options (online and offline) survived. Businesses that were able to quickly develop new options (e.g. restaurants that switched to delivery) thrived.

Artificial intelligence will reinforce this trend. AI will automate many jobs, but it will also create new opportunities. The people who will survive and thrive are those who can adapt quickly. Those who have many options. The ones who master the optionality principle.

The gig economy is already an optionality system. Instead of having one job, people have several sources of income. Instead of working for one employer, they work for multiple clients. Instead of having one skill, they develop a portfolio of skills.

The most successful people of the future will have "optionality portfolios":

-Multiple sources of income

-Multiple skills

-Multiple networks

-Multiple projects

-Multiple identities

They won't ask: "What is my job?" They will ask: "What options do I have?"

The companies of the future will be "optionality machines": they will not have one product, but a platform for many products. They will not serve one market, but many markets. They will not use one technology, but many technologies.

Amazon is already such an optionality machine: e-commerce, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, logistics, entertainment, advertising, hardware. Each area reinforces the others and opens up new possibilities.

Google is another: Search, advertising, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, hardware, autonomous vehicles, life sciences. Every project is an option for the future.

The question is not whether this future will come. The question is whether you are ready.

Will you continue to make decisions that close doors? Or will you start making decisions that open doors?

Will you continue to optimize for today? Or will you start optimizing for all possible tomorrows?

The future belongs to the optionality masters. The question is: will you be one of them?

The Optionality Principle is more than just a decision-making framework. It is a philosophy of life. A way of seeing the world. A strategy for an unpredictable future.

It does not ask: "What is the best way?" It asks: "Which path keeps the most paths open?"

It does not optimize for perfection, but for possibilities.

It does not plan the future, but prepares for all possible futures.

And in a world that is changing exponentially fast, this is perhaps the most valuable skill of all.

This article is part of my series on strategic decision making and entrepreneurial thinking. For more frameworks and principles that can transform your business, follow my blog and be part of the discussion on the future of entrepreneurship.

Taifun Kemerci

Coach - Consultant, Tycoons Corporation

Dubai - Stuttgart - Paris

Taifun Kemerci has already helped hundreds of entrepreneurs to build and scale their own profitable online coaching business. Prior to his studies, he worked as a shoe salesman at Foot Locker. He holds a Bachelor's degree in International Business and Political Science from the University of Heidelberg and Heilbronn University of Applied Sciences.

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